What Outcomes to Expect

On Tuesday, November 8, The United States will hold the 2022 Midterm Elections to fill the seats opening in Congress in the 2024 terms. This year, 35 senate seats and 435 House of Representatives seats will be changed, turned, and filled. Two-year House terms are coming to a close as well as some six-year senate terms, causing much anticipation within the country. 

Historically speaking, it is common for the majority of Congress to be made up of the party opposite of the President. President Biden is a Democrat, meaning that if Congress followed historic patterns, Republicans would be the primary party representative in Congress. However, since the pushback surrounding the overturn of Roe v Wade in June, it is looking that Democrats may control Congress for another term.

Seats in both institutions are very likely to flip this year, meaning occupants will switch from Democratic party to GOP and vice versa. Eric Garcia reporting for The Independent has predicted the top five states with the highest possibility of flipping seats in the Senate. Nevada, currently represented by Democrats, is expected to flip to Adam Lexalt, a Republican. Lieutenant Governor John Fetterman (D) of Pennsylvania is expected to replace current PA Senator Dr. Mehmet Oz (R). In Georgia, Herschel Walker (R) is leading Raphael Warnock (D) and is expected to take over the Senate seat. Wisconsin will likely be turning Democrat with Lieutenant Governor Mandela Barnes leading well ahead of the primary elections. North Carolina is witnessing the tightest race in the country between Cheryl Beasley (D) and Todd Budd (R), with Beasley in the lead at the time of this article being written.

As for Maryland, Chris Van Hollen (D) is running for his second term against Chris Chaffee (R) with polls on ballotpedia.org showing favor towards Van Hollen. Current Governor Larry Hogan is finishing up his second and final term as the third most popular Governor in the United States, according to Morning Consult. The pre-election polls are favoring Democratic candidate Wes Moore over Republican Dan Cox to take Hogan’s seat in office in 2023. According to WBALTV, “At this time eight years ago, the New York Times-CBS poll showed Anthony Brown up 22 points over Larry Hogan. Hogan went on to win,” showing that it is still possible for Cox to make a comeback, though not likely.

In terms of the House of Representatives, many two year terms are up, meaning it is time to fill the House. Democrats have held the majority since January of 2019, and are predicted to hold it through this next election season. On The Late Show with Stephen Colbert, current House speaker Nancy Pelosi said, “I believe that we will win the House—hold the House…And we will hold the House—by winning more seats.”

Elections will take place November 8 with results being updated live. Stay tuned for election results and to see who takes Hogan’s seat!